What Do We Know One Month from Arch Madness

Practically Nothing!

(St. Louis, MO) – We are exactly one month from Arch Madness and practically nothing is settled. Oh, we know Evansville and Indiana State will be playing on Thursday in St. Louis, but what other four teams will be joining them? We don’t know. Belmont won’t be playing until Friday, but what other teams will be joining them. We don’t know.

Matt Hackman puts out his charts (and we’re trying to get him on our podcast), but the actual standings change every day. When Illinois Chicago went on that eight-game win streak, it radically changed all the probabilities.

Who is the odds-on favorite to win the Larry Bird Trophy for most outstanding player? Crickets. There are more contenders than in the mixed up world of boxing associations. We think Murray State’s Roman Domon will be the ‘Freshman of the Year’, but that could all change down the stretch.

There are truly 25 to 30 players that have a legitimate shot at being named to the Valley fifteen or sixteen player all-conference teams.

Who are the best newcomers? There are a couple of on every team that could be on that list (By-the-way, freshmen shouldn’t be included on that team).

How about ‘Coach of the Year’? Right now it looks like Belmont’s Casey Alexander, but if the Bruins falter down the stretch, who knows? With all the youth on that Bradley team and what they are accomplishing, Brian Wardle has to be in the conversation.

One Month From Arch Madness – MVP Candidates

Most voters will cast their ballot for the ‘best player on the best team’. Belmont currently has a two-game lead with seven to play, but four of them are on the road with top contenders. If the Bruins hold on, I’m assuming the Bird trophy would go to Tyler Lundblade.

While he is having an outstanding season, is it that much better than teammate Drew Scharnowski? Lundblade is the team’s leading scorer (14.9 ppg), but Scharnowski’s 12.5 isn’t far behind and the 6’9 sophomore is third in the Valley rebounding race (7.2) and making .673 of his shots. There is a reasonable debate just within the Bruin team.

However, if the Bruins win, Lundblade will carry the Bird Trophy home.

If any of the teams right behind the Bruins can get into a tie for the regular season title, who claims the title then? Bradley and Murray State are two games behind Belmont. Murray’s Fred King or Javon Jackson would be legit contenders and so would Bradley’s Jaquan Johnson. Jackson is third in scoring and eleventh in assists. King is seventh in scoring and the Valley’s top rebounder and shot blocker. Johnson is tied with King on the scoring list and leads the MVC in steals.

By-the-way, KenPom.com’s all-Valley team is Illinois State’s Chase Walker, Johnson, Drake’s Jalen Quinn, Scharnowski and Northern Iowa’s Trey Campbell.

Who Is Earning a Thursday Bye?

Clearly Belmont won’t play until Friday. But after that, who knows. While Bradley and Murray State are just two games out of first place, they are also two games from sixth place. It’s unlikely that they could both fall out of the top five in the standings, but one of them could. Who thought the Racers were going to lose four straight games after their outstanding start?

UIC and Illinois State sit in those fourth and fifth (Friday) spots right now, just one game in front of Northern Iowa and two in front of both Drake and Valparaiso. If any of those three teams get hot, virtually all the Friday invitations are up for grabs (other than Belmont’s).

Southern Illinois fans should plan on being in St. Louis on Thursday with the Indiana State and Evansville fans, but the other eight teams are scrapping for a spot in the top five.

Valpo has two games with Drake and with Evansville and one with Indiana State among their final eight games. Roger Powell’s team (5-7) could do some damage.

KenPom.com predicts a Belmont championship with Murray State finishing second, one game in front of three teams tied for second through fifth.

But when you look his individual predictions, Mr. Pomeroy believes Bradley will lose six of its last seven games and Illinois State will win seven of its last eight. I’m sorry, but that just ain’t likely and it changes what he says about his projected standings.

Even KenPom.com doesn’t know!

Freshmen and Newcomers

Clearly Domon is a front-runner for the rookie of the year, but there are seemingly great freshmen on every team! Is Belmont’s Jack Smiley not right there in the conversation? Bradley’s Montana Wheeler and Evansville’s Leif Moeller have been outstanding. How do you ignore the duet of J.T. Pettigrew and Rakim Chaney at Valpo? Andy Johnson at UIC has seemingly hit the wall a bit, but he’s been terrific.

Belmont’s Eoin Dillon is making a mid-season push to get noticed and UE’s Bryce Quinett and SIU’s Jalen Haynes have quietly had tremendous first seasons. Who remembers Jabez Jenkins is a red-shirt freshman? He’s been outstanding.

There are too many newcomers to even talk about, but Drake’s league-leading scorer Jalen Quinn, Murray State’s King, Valpo’s Owen Dease and Indiana State’s Ian Scott are names that come to mind.

SIU’s Quel’Ron House, Bradley’s Alex Huibregtse and UIC’s Elijah Crawford have to be in the conversation.

Most Improved and Bench Teams

Domon’s move to the starting lineup will eliminate his shoe-in for top bench player, but there are plenty of great candidates. Vaparaiso guard Justus McNair and Belmont’s Smiley have to be some of the top names. SIU’s Haynes has started just three MVC games. If players like Indiana State’s Bruno Alocen and Illinois State’s Landon Wolf don’t start too many games down the stretch they have a shot as does Bradley’s Wheeler, UIC’s Abdul Momoh and Josiah Hammons.

Drake’s Jaehshon Thomas shoudn’t be overlooked.

The most improved Valley players are an interesting bunch. I think of players like Scharnowski, UNI’s Will Hornseth, Bradley’s Johnson and maybe Ahmet Jonovic, SIU’s Rolyns Aligbe and Belmont’s Sam Orme. One month from Arch Madness, there are plenty of players that could still impress in this category.

The finishing kick to the Missouri Valley season could be very special as all these scenarios shake out and teams arrive in St. Louis.

Do Good