MVC at the Halfway Point

Ranking the Teams in Three Tiers

(St. Louis, MO) – We’re at the halfway point of the Missouri Valley Conference league schedule and the race is wide open for most of the conference’s teams. Five teams are within two games of first place and eight are within three games in the loss column.

While three teams are a bit out of the race, even two of those teams have shown signs of being competitive and could still climb the standings’ ladder.

We are ranking the Valley members in three tiers. We list ‘championship contenders’, ‘solid competitors’ and ‘trailing the field’. Several teams in that second category could easily become championship contenders.

Our rankings are based on current records, looming injuries, ‘Monday Metrics’, their upcoming schedules and my confidence in how they will perform. Teams are listed within their categories in alphabetical order rather than their order within that category.

All statistics are ‘conference only’ in nature.

Halfway Point Championship Contenders

Belmont Bruins – (18-3, 8-2) – Monday Metrics – 64.4

The Bruins are two, one-point losses away from being undefeated in Valley play and are a stunning 8-1 in true road games. They have been succeeding without league-leading assist man Nic McClain. Belmont’s efficient offense is a thing of beauty.

While Casey Alexander’s squad leads the Valley in both field goal and three-point percentage, they also have the size to compete with the Valley’s outstanding post players. Four players average double figures in scoring and center Drew Scharnowski (11.8 & 7.2) has come into his own.

The Bruins have two games left with rival Murray State and they must travel to Bradley and Illinois State.

Bradley Braves – (14-7, 7-3) – Monday Metrics – 142

Brian Wardle’s teams get better as the season wears on and they will need to do that again this season to stay in this category. This is one of the youngest teams Wardle has mentored at Bradley and the team’s inexperience has shown.

The explosive play of young guards Jaquan Johnson, Demarion Burch and Montana Wheeler gives this team a very high ceiling, but the Braves’ inability to defend also reveals a possible very low basement.

Bradley is among the league leaders in steals, but near the bottom of conference rankings in every other defensive statistic. We believe Wardle will solve this and the firepower from those guards, Alex Huibregtse and Ahmet Jonovic should be strong enough to contend.

Illinois State – (14-7, 6-4) – Monday Metrics – 92.2

The preseason favorites have experienced a very up and down season. After a stretch of winning eleven of twelve games, they’ve lost four of their last six games. The nucleus of Chase Walker, Johnny Kinziger and Boden Skunberg is very good.

Depth is an unexpected issue for this team. Freshman Ty’Reek Coleman and wing Ty Pence round out the starting lineup, but the contributions of Landon Wolf, Jack Daugherty and Mason Klabo haven’t yet been what the team has needed.

Murray State Racers – (16-5, 8-2) – Monday Metrics – 85.8

The Racers ran off to an 8-0 start and then crashed during their two-game Iowa trip. How the Valley’s highest scoring team responds to their first MVC losing streak is key. They have five games left with the other three teams in this tier.

Center Fredrick King, leading scorer Javon Jackson and sixth man Roman Domon are the most prominent players on a very deep team. Wing Mason Miller needs to re-locate his shooting touch and the Racers need to improve on the defensive end. Look for Layne Taylor to take more of a leadership role during the close of the season.

Solid Competitors

Drake Bulldogs – (11-10, 5-5) – Monday Metrics – 165.4

The defending champions struggled out of the gate and two of their five league losses were lopsided affairs. They lost by 17 to Illinois State and by twenty-seven at Bradley. Eric Henderson’s team has now won two straight and three of their last four games.

The league’s second leading scorer, Jalen Quinn and the emergence of Owen Larson has given Drake two, legitimate scoring threats. Their margin for error isn’t great. Three of the Bulldog’s five wins have come by a total of six points.

Illinois Chicago Flames – (11-10, 6-4) – Monday Metrics – 140.2

The Valley’s hottest team seemingly came out of nowhere with the return of Elijah Crawford to its lineup. Crawford returned seven games ago and the Flames have won six straight contests. He’a averaging 12.7 points and 3.5 assists and is the league’s newly minted, ‘Newcomer of the Week’.

UIC defends and rebounds! They are second to Northern Iowa in points allowed and lead the Valley in defensive field goal percentage and in steals. The Flames lead the league in offensive rebounds. Rob Ehsan’s team plays with enormous effort.

Northern Iowa Panthers – (13-8, 5-5) – Monday Metrics – 100.6

The Valley’s best defensive team has struggled on the offensive end and the loss of Tristan Smith has been surprisingly monumental for a team with this many returning veterans. Scoring has not been easy and a team that is typically known for three-point shooting is the Valley’s second worst long distance team.

When and if Smith returns is a critical component along with finding an offensive identity will be essential to UNI’s ability to climb into the upper tier.

Valparaiso Beacons – (10-10, 4-5) – Monday Metrics – 172.8

Roger Powell Jr’s team has won two straight and of their four conference wins have included victories over UIC, Illinois State and UNI. The young Beacons have found an outstanding scorer in Owen Dease (18.2) and rookies J.T. Pettigrew and Rakim Chaney are big contributors.

Center Shon Tupuola is playing a key role in defending the stream of outstanding MVC centers.

Trailing the Field

Evansville Purple Aces – (5-15, 1-8) – Monday Metrics – 278.2

David Ragland’s team has played most of the league season without star center Connor Turnbull. The Aces struggle offensively. They are tenth in scoring and eleventh in turnover margin and assist to turnover ratio.

UE’s bright spot has been the play of freshman guard Leif Moeller. The German rookie is second in the league in assists (4.2 per game) and third in free throw percentage (.853).

Indiana State Sycamores – (9-12, 2-8) – Monday Metrics – 213.2

The Sycamores can score (75.7 per game) but allow the most points (81.9). Indiana State’s two wins are against some of Valley’s elite (Belmont and Illinois State), so they have the capacity to contend. They lead the league in assists.

Centers Markus Harding and Derek Vorst have been in and out of the lineup. Ian Scott is in the running to be named to the all-newcomer team. He is the Valley’s fourth leading scorer (16.7) and rebounder (6.6).

Southern Illinois Salukis – (8-12, 2-7) – Monday Metrics – 149

SIU has lost four straight games and struggles shooting the ball. They are last in three-point percentage (.272) and in free throw percentage (.642). They also defend the three-point line well.

Rolyns Aligbe is the league’s third leading rebounder (6.8) and Quel’Ron House has had some explosive offensive performances and is averaging 12.4 in league play.

Monday Metrics

Our Monday Metrics are an amalgamation of the NET, Kenpom.com, Barttorvic.com, Warren Nolan’s RPI and EvanMiya.com.

Do Good

 

Editor: Cover photo courtesy of belmontbruins.com.