Could Belmont Earn an At-Large Bid?

Monday Metrics Says ‘Yes’

(St. Louis, MO) – Our latest evaluation of ‘Monday Metrics’ begs the question ‘could Belmont earn an at-large bid?’. The Bruins’ schedule works against that possibility, but the Missouri Valley Conference’s hottest team could be building a case that the Selection Committee at least has to look at.

Belmont needs to force the committee to at least ask the question.

After Saturday’s convincing victory over Murray State the Bruins (20-3, 10-2) have won seven straight games and each of their conference losses have been by one point. With eight league games left and Arch Madness to follow, the Bruins could have as many as 30 wins by Selection Sunday.

We know this is a tall order. Belmont’s closing eight game schedule includes four with teams in the top five of the league standings. Illinois Chicago, Bradley, Murray State and Illinois State are all 8-4.

All four of those games are on the road.

‘Monday Metrics’ is Valley Hoops Insider’s average of five major measuring tools. Four of the five have Belmont ranked inside the nation’s top 60 teams. Sixty-eight teams receive invitations to the NCAA Tournament. Belmont’s ‘Monday Metrics’ average is 57.4 and obviously the Bruins’ best path is to simply win three games in St. Louis and claim the Arch Madness title and automatic bid.

During the Bruins’ current streak they have been without the services of point guard Nic McClain and forward Sam Orme was unavailable for most of BU’s game with Valparaiso and all of Saturday’s contest with the Racers.

Belmont’s NET ranking of 58 puts them in a nice numeric spot, but a very dicey at-large bid range. The Bruins’ strength of schedule is working against them, but their amazing 9-1 road record gives them a boost.

Could Belmont Earn an at-large Bid?

They must win something like six of their last eight games and win two Valley tournament games. Then they would have a prayer. Their record would stand 28-6. But which games? Belmont has to sweep its four remaining home games with Drake, Northern Iowa, Indiana State and Evansville. Lose one of those and at-large bid hopes are over.

Illinois State’s 69 NET ranking could work in Belmont’s favor. If the Redbirds can stay in the NET’s top 75, Belmont’s visit on the last day of the regular season would be the Bruins’ first Quad One game of the season.

Road games at Bradley and at Murray State would be Quad Two games based on today’s NET rankings. Belmont is 3-0 in Quad Two games. Should they sweep those three road games they would be 6-0 in the top two quadrants.

That is probably still too weak a number to receive that special phone call.

However, if they would sweep the last eight, win two at the Enterprise Center and be standing at 30-4, Casey Alexander’s team would at least be forcing the Committee to ask the question and they would forcing them to say ‘no’, rather than just dismissing another mid-major program.

By-the-way, under the old RPI method, Belmont’s 48 ranking would be a better, but fool-proof measurement. Indiana State’s 2023-24 NIT runner-up team went into Selection Sunday with a record of 28-6 and a NET ranking of 28.

Could Belmont earn an at-large bid? It seems unlikely, but we’d love to see the Bruins force the Committee into a corner.

Do Good