How Do We Figure the OVC?

Great Wins & Terrible Winning Percentage

(St. Louis, MO) – Ohio Valley Conference fans don’t know what to make of this season. There have been great wins by UT Martin and Southern Illinois Edwardsville and a terrible winning percentage against Division 1 teams.

The league’s overall record is a disappointing and confusing 19-26 (.378). When you eliminate OVC teams’ 12-0 record against non-D1 teams the record is an abysmal 7-26. Then you realize that OVC teams have played ten games against ‘power five conference’ teams, you could say their record against ‘like teams’ is 17-16.

But how do we figure the OVC?

Defending champion Southeast Missouri got drilled at Saint Louis and almost upended Missouri in Columbia, but then lost a home game to a reasonably good St. Thomas team. Their next seven games should give us a better read on who they are, but their next game is at Iowa.

After that road game at Iowa, Brad Korn’s team has two ‘neutral site’ games in Arizona against Cal Poly and Northern Arizona. A home game with Lipscomb and a non-D1 game precede a roadie at Chattanooga and another non-D1 game.

Then OVC action commences in mid-December.

How Do We Figure The Preseason Favorite?

Until Saturday’s win over Ball State, league favorite Little Rock squad had been dominated in its first two D1 games. The 2-2 Trojans play five of their next six games on the road. Darrell Walker’s team heads to Murray State, Texas State, Southern Illinois and Central Arkansas before hosting Arkansas State. The Trojans close out the nonconference season with a game at West Virginia.

KenPom.com predicts they will be 4-6 when the OVC season tips off.

Are SIUE and UT Martin Really Good?

OVC teams have claimed seven Division 1 wins and SIUE and UT Martin own four of those victories. UTM’s wins at UNLV and Bradley are signature victories in an otherwise disappointing OVC season. SIUE’s win at UTSA was significant and the Cougars’ win at Drake was monumental.

Two of SIUE’s next seven are against non-D1’s and they also face Wisconsin. If KenPom is correct the Cougars will be 9-2 entering league play.

Tenneessee Martin meets Florida State next, but also has two, non-D1’s in store. It wouldn’t be odd to see the Skyhawks’ record standing at 8-2 heading into conference action.

Lindenwood and Eastern Illinois own the other two, Division 1 wins. Tennessee State is 2-2 with no D1 victories. Nolan Smith’s team has the privilege of heading to Knoxville for a game with Tennessee.

How do we figure these teams?

What About the Rest?

EIU’s win over Charleston Southern was encouraging. The Panthers have already lost to Notre Dame and Kentucky and still have Purdue and Iowa State on the upcoming schedule. Marty Simmons’ team has three, non-D1 games left to play and reasonable contests with Central Arkansas and Eastern Kentucky.

We believe EIU is a dangerous OVC team.

How do we figure these teams? We watch them play. We honestly believe the league is better than last season. However, the metrics are weird and the combination of ‘power five buy games’ and non D1 contests confuses the issue.

By Saturday, OVC teams will have played five more ‘power five’ teams and two more non-D1’s. How are we to figure the OVC?

We are excited about the wins by UT Martin and SIUE and the potential at TSU, Little Rock and Southeast Missouri. This long season will bear out who is good and who is not.

Do Good