(St. Louis, MO) – Pivotal non conference games are on tap for Missouri Valley Conference teams. The Mountain West/Missouri Valley Conference Challenge is on tap or Valley squads and a successful week is critical to the league’s post-season hopes.
Judging by outside sources the Valley is better than the Mountain West (9 versus 17 in RealtimeRPI.com rankings) AND worse (9 versus 11 in KenPom.com rankings). Ken Pomeroy’s head-to-head predictions lead us to believe the Challenge will produce a ten game split.
An even split has occurred the past two seasons. The Mountain West owns a 38-27 overall edge.
From Tuesday’s high stakes Sweet Sixteen matchup between Nevada and Loyola to Bradley’s Saturday date with New Mexico, the ramifications are obvious. These pivotal non conference games can elevate the league’s national status or diminish its collective postseason hopes.
Tuesday Games
The Challenge opens with the biggest game of the series. Sixth ranked Nevada visits Loyola in a rematch of the last year’s epic Sweet Sixteen battle between two ascending programs. Two energetic coaches Eric Musselman of Nevada and Porter Moser of Loyola have planted their teams squarely on the national map. This game was sold out months ago and is a huge challenge for the rebuilding Ramblers.
Clayton Custer, Marques Townes and Cameron Krutwig are still around, but the Ramblers (4-2) seem to miss Ben Richardson, Donte Ingram and Aundre Jackson more than Moser expected. Nevada (6-0) is loaded with NBA hopefuls. The Ramblers represent the best competition the Wolf Pack has faced this season, but the Martin twins (Caleb and Cody) and Jordan Caroline are as good a starting trio as Loyola will face all year.
Drake’s (3-1) surprising start will be put to the test when they entertain Boise State (2-3). Darian DeVries’ team has held serve against three poor competitors but were 29-point losers at Colorado. The Broncos were recent three-point victims to Illinois State.
Southern Illinois (3-3) visits former Drake coach Niko Medved and Colorado State (4-2). The Rams haven’t defeated a team with a KenPom rating better than 254 and their two losses were both by double digits. After dropping their first two games to nationally ranked Kentucky and Buffalo, the Salukis have won three of four contests. Barry Hinson’s squad is getting healthier and there is a growing definition of roles.
Wednesday Games
Four of the five Wednesday games find Valley teams on the road. Only Evansville (2-3), who hosts Wyoming (2-4) plays on a friendly court. The Aces (2-3) have played a monstrous schedule, dropping games with Illinois, Xavier and Ball State, while knocking off Kentucky Wesleyan and Texas Southern. Walter McCarty’s team is playing games at a high tempo and their effective field goal percentage is outstanding, but the Purple Aces are plagued with turnover problems and they are getting killed on the boards.
Valparaiso, Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Indiana State hit the road. Valpo and UNI battle the highest ranked Mountain West teams of the day. The Crusaders travel to ‘Sin City’ for a game with the Runnin Rebels of UNLV (4-1, 50 – RPI) while the Panthers (3-3) travel to Utah State (5-1, 107 – RPI).
MVC teams have won just three times this non conference season against teams of a 105 RPI or better.
Saturday Contests
Other than Loyola’s game with Nevada, there are no bigger games than the two Saturday contests.
I-74 rivals Illinois State and Bradley entertain sturdy opponents.
Illinois State (5-2) seems to be finding a rhythm and rotation that was alluding them early in the season. Saturday they host San Diego State (3-2). The Aztecs, picked second to Nevada in the MWC, returned three double digit scorers from last year’s 22-win team.
Bradley owns two of the Valley’s three best wins (Penn State & SMU). Their 6-1 start is team’s best start since 2004-05. The Braves host New Mexico (3-1). The Lobos have the nation’s best ‘effective field goal percentage’ (.621) and Bradley ranks in the top 100. Both teams play a fast tempo and tenacious defense.
Bradley owns the best KenPom rating (101) and second best RPI (104) among Valley teams.
With so few ‘quality wins’ by MVC squads, these have become pivotal non conference games.
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